Brief update on publicly available COVID-19 case data at Arizona State University

The epidemiologic picture has improved, but student case rates remain quite high, and ASU’s zip code is now at the epicenter of the Arizona epidemic; future case counts at ASU are highly uncertain

Update Overview

Summary of four data disclosures from August 25 through September 3

August 25.

August 28.

August 31.

September 3.

Some Simple Model Fits to Coarse Student and Zip Code 85281 Data

Brief Model Description and Student Data Fits

Figure 1. Simple processing of disclosed data into daily interpolated cumulative cases loads and daily new case rates; case data is for the entire student population. Figure by the author.
Figure 2. Two potential SEIR model fits (that are then run an additional 7 days) to the student case data also given in Figure 1. Very different outcomes are possible with the same model and data. Figure by the author.

85210 Data and Model Fits

Figure 3. Daily cases (as a 7-day moving average) for the top 100 zip codes in Arizona with the most total COVID-19 cases. Tempe zip code 85281 is highlighted in red. Figure by the author.
Figure 4. Raw data and SEIR model fits (with infectious contact rate fitted piecewise) for zip code 85281. Daily cases are on the left panel, cumulative cases on the right. Figure by the author.

Code Availability

Academic with a background in medicine, mathematics, and engineering (MD,PhD). Interested in agriculture and how consumption drives global environmental change.

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